Slow day at Willard this week

[TubeDude]

Hey Pat, what was the water temp now?  Twenty degree drop has got to put a shock on things for sure, plus if the shad are dying off, that has to fill the fish bellies and make it a little more difficult to get a bite... Sure interesting how the fish can disappear, yet other spots were probably loaded...  Last November on Cutler, I seen a similar day with nothing on the screen until I found a little deeper area and it looked like the mother load with teams of fish schooled up... Only got a couple to bite that day, but was cool how they had changed patterns from usual... Looked like I imagine the ocean would look with fish everywhere, once I found them... Thanks for your perspective on the day... Later J

Water temps were below 45 in the marina but 46 outside.  That is almost 20 degrees lower than about a week ago.  We have been waiting for the cold water to turn on the perch fishing, but the fish need time to adjust.  

There was a report a few days ago of someone seeing dead shad.  But there were no shad...living or dead...in the areas we fished yesterday.  However, as you suggested...the fish were SOMEWHERE.  There is a "90/10 rule" that says 90% of the fish will be in only 10% of the water.  And that really seems to hold true in Willard.  We have all had days when our sonars showed little or nothing for hours...and then suddenly we are in a mass of fish from top to bottom.  But...as we all painfully discover...finding fish is no guarantee you can catch them.  Like females of the human species, fish seem to do what they want, when they want and where they want...for their own reasons.  And we (mostly male) anglers gotta figure them out on any given day if we wanna "get lucky".  

After this unusual year of both high water and high temperatures longer into the fall, it is anyone\s guess as to what "normal" will be this year.  Some of us believe there will likely not be as much of a baby shad dieoff because the warmer temps lasted longer and the smallest shad had more time to grow and develop...and to be more survivable in the cooling water.  We shall see.  Right now I am forecasting a much earlier ice cap on the lake than last year...so when and if the perchin' does pick up it might not last long in open water.  Most years in the past Willard marinas ice up around the first week of December...with the open lake capping in January.  And the best ice fishing has been in February.  Last year I was float tubing in late January into February...and still catching both perch and catfish.